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If AirAsia rebounded strongly towards its previous high, don't forget AirAsia-CC. The latter would double almost immediately from its present price because of its small conversion ratio.

ijanmaster wrote:
i dont know why are you guys wait for the entry. many indicators showed that it will rebound on Monday, so, very much limited downside on Airasia. With EPF onboard, deep pocket with 'our' money in the stock, i'm already in yesterday (Friday).
KLCI also about to rebound, if it fills the gap between Thursday & Friday. This gap created due to knee-jerk reaction from US market. Yesterday was last chance to make an entry at a good price. I think (bias by EPF) it has bottomed-out.
Stop-loss VERY TIGHT at 1.52 !!!

As for me, I am not waiting for entry, I am crossing out any entry for this stock. The pattern of movement does not fit to my trading ­style­/plan. While there may be money to be made, I am unwilling to take a trading risk which does not fit to my plan.

Notes on EPF. EPF buys on many facets here are a few, 1. to earn the annual 5%, 2. to bail out ailing glcs (govt will make good in due time), 3 being socially responsible to maintain stability of KLSE, and not to begger the greedy public as opposed to foreign fund who is out to fleece the locals (Let them come, volatility is fodder for swing trader which I am not) . 4. to scour the bourse for cash rich coy to buy in and demands dividend distribution (Ekson was such eg.).

When EPF is in just for the 5% the price rise would be capped for a period time.

wow... great point to know... :)

To me, it's like a bet against the crude oil price.

If EPF and the American company is betting on an upside (downside for oil), the surge is imminent. Anyway, a bet is a bet. If crude oil price surged to record high again next week, ... ya know...

If US Fed gave a surprise rate cut next week, crude oil price will hike again due to depreciating USD speculation.

If oil price maintains below $90, AIRASIA may fly to its previous favorite sweet 18 (RM1.80).

As US just enters its 2nd week of earnings season, Fed most likely will not interfere with any monetary policies.

As for coupling and decoupling speculation, it depends on the type of news spreaded in the US. If the news will potentially affect the world economy, coupling is inevitable. EPF can only prevent it from dropping too low.

As CNY and election are approaching, decoupling is very likely to happen any time. The bigger influence should be election than CNY. CNY2007 also proved to be a disaster for many as many can still remember the pain of the roasted (pork?) palm.

Anyway, good luck to you all. May CNY2008 not as bad as CNY2007.

Most of the indicators looks good. I find MACD and Williams%R a good and useful indicators to determine the reversal of a counter in Bursa. Even JCandlestick chart looks positive. Probably put a tighter sell stop for this counter.
However I dislike AirAsia's explanation on their hedging policy. If they want to hedge their position on the usage of fuel oil then just buy a futures contract or buy a call option. KISS.
Their explanation of Selling a call option at a price and taking a put spreads plus a fixed swap in fuel contracts to get a plain vanila hedge looks more like none of the top executives knows what is hedging or totally confused abt it. Further the Company made a profit from the hedge of US$80 million!!!! You don't profit from a hedge but a hedge would help you to fix your costs of fuel for a certain period of time.
I remembered in the early 1990s when Bank Negara Malaysia made an announcement that they made RM100 million in their forex desk when there were enquiries on their 'hedging'(meaning speculation) in the forex market under our present 2nd Finance Minister. They also gave long explanations with all the hedging terms thrown in to confused the people
A few years later BNM lost more than RM20 BILLION of the country's funds in their 'hedging' of forex market.
I hope AirAsia will not make the same mistake as BNM did in the early 1990s. It would be alright if you wish to speculate but do have a strong risk management system in place and do fix a limit to the potential loss.
On second thought, why do Airasia want to speculate in the fuel prices? Greed or is it that the current business model could hardly make profits except profits through their 'hedging' system???