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Its Elliot wave one day, candle sticks the other, and there are more out there. We even have seminar and lots and lots of book on making millions, if not billions from the market. The question here is, if these tools are so right, the inventors and all those authors out there should have more success than Warren Buffet!
Market will behave and will seem to follow a certain trend when the market is in its normal phase without crisis. This should be easy enough to understand. Almost everyone buys on good news and sells on the bad one, and this itself represent one set of trend.
However, no analysis tool is yet available that can predict the Iraq war, the March 8 election result, and if Steve Job is going to resign tomorrow because of his health.
No tool has accurately predicted the raise of oil prices in the past 2 years. We have reviews, but no direct prediction. In fact, Goldman Sachs in April Predicted that oil will reach USD 150 per barrel. Now, any taker on this? At the beginning of this month, a lot of us will believe it. Now, a little doggy… just remain non committals will be the right this to do here!
Oil price will remain volatile for the time being. The whole issue was blow out of proportion sometime ago, but if you look closer, there is a lot of speculative play other than pure market demand and supply. That is another story.
I believe if you want to be committed as a responsible investor in the equity market, you have to take full responsible for your investment first. The most successful investor we all know is Warren Buffet. He is no God, but he is consistence and he invests in what he can understand and his focus on Value Creation.
The point is, scientific method is just a tool. No more, no less.
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